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Is the Indian Ocean Ready for the Next Big Maritime Disruption?

Is the Indian Ocean Ready for the Next Big Maritime Disruption?

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Time, tide, and the world stood still. And watched. 

Because there was nothing to do. All that could’ve been done, should’ve been done earlier. 

But we never think something can go wrong unless it absolutely does. And when it does the results are quite alarming. 

When the Ever Given got stuck in the Suez Canal it was just one vessel lodged in a narrow waterway. But it cost the global economy $9 billion a day, which translates to about $400 million per hour or $6.7 million per minute. 

Even those outside the maritime industry were quoting data about so much in losses, size of the ship, cargo delays, and so on. I had never experienced anything like it before, but somehow it managed to capture the imagination of people worldwide. 

But my mind was firmly back home, specifically in the Indian Ocean.

For India, strategically positioned in the Indian Ocean, this event was more than just a global spectacle—it was a warning. With our heavy dependence on maritime routes like the Suez, the risks we face are clear. 

If one incident can cripple global trade, what’s stopping the next disruption from hitting us even harder?

I believe resilience in maritime logistics today is a matter of survival. If we don’t rethink how we manage our shipping lanes and supply chains now, we’re setting ourselves up for failure when—not if—the next crisis hits.

The Fragility of Global Trade Routes: Learning from the Suez Canal Blockage

Consider this: nearly 10% of the world’s oil flows through the Suez Canal. 

When the blockage occurred, global oil supplies felt the pinch immediately. Prices surged by almost 6% in a matter of days. But the impact wasn’t just global—it hit India particularly hard. 

As the world’s third-largest importer of oil, India’s energy security depends heavily on smooth passage through the Suez. A single disruption was enough to expose the vulnerability of our energy supply chain.

Beyond oil, India’s trade lifeline runs through this critical chokepoint. Roughly 80% of our total trade with Europe passes through the Red Sea, with the Suez Canal as a key route for key exports like textiles, chemicals, and machinery. 

The blockage didn’t just delay shipments—it shook confidence in the reliability of one of the most important trade routes for our economy.

The lesson here is stark: our heavy dependence on global choke points like the Suez Canal puts us at serious risk. If we’re to maintain economic stability and energy security, we need to rethink how we manage these critical trade arteries. 

How Can We Build Resilience in Maritime Logistics?

It can be difficult to move away from traditional systems, processes that have served us so well in the past. But we can’t wait for another Ever Given like incident to wake us up.

Diversifying Trade Routes

The Suez Canal blockage highlighted the dangers of over-reliance on a single route. India must explore alternatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India to Europe via Iran, bypassing the Suez and opening new trade opportunities in Central Asia. 

Another option is the Cape of Good Hope, providing a longer but safer route in emergencies.

Collaborating with emerging African maritime hubs—like Djibouti, Kenya, and Tanzania—can further diversify our logistics networks. These partnerships offer access to growing African markets while reducing our dependence on singular chokepoints like the Suez.

Upgrading Domestic Infrastructure

Modernizing India’s ports through the Sagarmala initiative is crucial, but we must go further by strengthening inland connectivity. Building multimodal logistics hubs and dry ports that seamlessly link sea routes to road and rail networks will keep trade moving, even when maritime routes are disrupted.

How Can We Build Resilience in Maritime Logistics?

If Supply Chain is the Body, Technology is the Spine

It’s not just about the Suez Canal to be honest. There are other maritime chokepoints that could meet similar fates. 

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 80% of India’s crude oil imports pass, is another vital passage that presents a high-risk zone due to geopolitical tensions. Any disruption here could cripple supply lines, particularly for energy imports.

AI-Driven Predictive Systems

That’s where AI-driven predictive systems are leading the charge. In Indian waters, AI can be used for real-time rerouting, helping ships navigate around congestion, bad weather, or even security threats. 

These systems act as a preemptive solution, identifying risks before they escalate. By combining satellite imagery, radar, and AI it’s possible to monitor maritime traffic accurately and detect anomalies.

Autonomous Shipping and Unmanned Vessels

The future of maritime resilience also lies in autonomous shipping. 

Unmanned vessels, or USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels), offer the potential to ensure uninterrupted operations, especially during crises. These vessels can operate without human intervention, reducing risks to crews while maintaining trade routes in challenging conditions.

For India, integrating USVs into its maritime strategy could dramatically increase flexibility, allowing for greater control over logistics, even in high-risk or inaccessible areas. 

Blockchain for Maritime Logistics

Add to that blockchain technology, and you get transparency and security. By using blockchain, all stakeholders in the supply chain—from shippers to customs authorities—can access a decentralized, tamper-proof record of goods at every stage of the journey. 

This ensures the authenticity of cargo, eliminates delays due to paperwork errors, and protects against fraud.

During crises, when quick decision-making is crucial, end-to-end visibility becomes even more vital. Blockchain enables real-time tracking of goods, allowing businesses to monitor shipments, reroute cargo if needed, and maintain operational efficiency even when the unexpected occurs. 

For India, now is the time to make a shift and improve resilience by ensuring that trade doesn’t stall due to documentation or security issues.

Rethinking Resilience for the Future of Maritime Logistics

It’s time to rethink our approach and take proactive steps toward a more secure and agile maritime future. I encourage you to download our in-depth eBook on building resilience in maritime logistics. 

Dead Reckoning: The AI Takeover of Maritime Operations will guide you through the transformative potential of AI-driven maritime management. Equip yourself with the insights needed to navigate the challenges of tomorrow.

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